Recent Trends in Violent Crime: A Closer Look at the Homicide Rate in the United States

In 2020, the United States experienced a staggering increase in its homicide rate amidst the disruptions caused by the pandemic and the social unrest following the tragic murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis.

A recent report suggests that the nation is now on track to record one of its largest declines in homicides,

more than three years after the start of the pandemic.

While this decline is promising, violent crime still remains considerably higher than pre-pandemic levels,

making it essential for police chiefs and city leaders to focus on restoring safety and security in cities that remain plagued by gun violence.

Recent Trends in Violent Crime: A Closer Look at the Homicide Rate in the United States

In the wake of the pandemic and the upheaval following George Floyd’s murder, the United States experienced an alarming increase in its homicide rate during 2020.

Now, over three years since the start of the pandemic, a recent report from the nonpartisan Council on Criminal Justice suggests that the country is making progress towards one of its largest declines in homicides.

The report examined crime data from 30 major cities across the nation, including prominent ones like Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, Philadelphia, and Denver.

It revealed that during the first half of the current year, there were 202 fewer homicides, marking a drop of more than 9 percent.

Despite this decline, however, the number of homicides in these cities remains 24 percent higher than the same period in 2019.

Richard Rosenfeld, the lead author of the report and a professor of criminology and criminal justice at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, described the findings as “heartening” but refrained from celebrating prematurely, emphasizing that most cities have not yet returned to the pre-pandemic homicide levels.

While the decline in homicides is a positive sign, the data’s scope is limited to the cities from which the council could obtain data.

Additionally, some categories of crime have data from only a few cities, making it challenging to draw broad conclusions.

For example, gun assaults showed a decline of 5.6 percent, which is a positive sign for overall gun violence, but the data was based on just ten cities in the study that provided relevant information.

Robberies, burglaries, and larcenies have also seen a decrease, indicating some progress in curbing various forms of crime. However, car thefts have risen further, partly due to the ease with which teenagers have been able to steal certain car models.

The Council on Criminal Justice began tracking crime data at the outset of the pandemic to offer timely insights into national trends when government agencies faced challenges in data reporting due to the pandemic’s impact.

Notably, the FBI’s release of national crime statistics, which typically occurs in the fall for the previous year, was affected by a shift in reporting systems in 2021, leading to missing data from major cities like Chicago and New York.

Criminologists face difficulties in explaining sudden increases or declines in crime. While the disruptions caused by the pandemic, such as social isolation, school closures, and job losses, likely contributed to an increase in crime, other factors remain contentious.

One unproven theory suggests that amid the social unrest following George Floyd’s murder, some law enforcement officers pulled back from enforcement, while certain citizens, distrustful of law enforcement, stopped cooperating with police.

Interestingly, violent crime has decreased despite many police departments having smaller staff compared to pre-pandemic levels. The defund the police movement, which emerged from the Floyd protests, saw some momentum wane as crime rose.

However, the staffing levels of many police departments declined due to retirements, resignations, and difficulties in recruiting new officers amidst a competitive U.S. job market. This resulted in unintended experiments with smaller police departments.

Los Angeles, for example, experienced a reduction of about 1,000 officers since 2019. Yet, homicides in the city decreased by over 20 percent this year, and overall gun violence also saw a significant decline.

To manage with fewer officers, the Los Angeles Police Department had to rely on overtime and prioritize resources for the most serious violent and property crimes.

However, this has affected their ability to respond quickly to lower-level issues, potentially undermining community members’ confidence in the department and government.

A similar pattern of smaller departments and falling crime rates can be observed in Philadelphia, which had over 700 fewer officers at the end of last year compared to 2019, yet experienced a decline of more than 20 percent in homicides.

The city spent millions of dollars on overtime to address the situation.

Minneapolis, although not included in the council’s report, also saw a substantial decline in violent crime.

The department’s staffing was reduced by around 300 officers since 2019, and to sustain the reduction in crime, the focus shifted to crime hot spots in the city.

Despite the increases in recent years, violent crime in the United States remains considerably lower than its historical peaks in the early 1990s.

During periods of surging murders and violent crime in the past, policymakers responded with increasingly harsh criminal justice policies, leading to mandatory minimum sentences for drug crimes, tougher laws for juvenile offenders, and a significant increase in policing, all of which contributed to mass incarceration.

In contrast, the recent decline in violent crime has not resulted in major policy shifts towards more punitive measures, as was the case during the 1980s and 1990s. Efforts